“Brazil will not accept being anyone’s backyard,” declared Brazil’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in his victory speech a message directed straight at Washington.
National elections are rarely won on the basis of foreign policy, and this one was no exception. However, Lula’s resistance against what he framed as U.S. interference in Brazilian affairs stirred a sense of patriotism that proved to be a highly effective weapon during the campaign.
This was also consistent with his broader political persona: that of a former trade union leader who stands firm against powerful figures.
Ironically, this same stance earned him the respect of President Donald Trump. “I like Lula; we get along very well,” Trump remarked in response to the election outcome. “I didn’t take sides,” he added though he also went on to label the election “very bad” and “rigged.”
If this statement seems contradictory, it is because the relationship between the two figures is far from straightforward. While Trump did not explicitly endorse Lula’s rival who refused to concede defeat even though the Superior Electoral Court found no evidence of irregularities and his own party accepted the results Trump was a close ally of that rival’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.
When I spoke with Lula at his residence about a year ago, relations were at their lowest point. He told me that he has “no connection” to Trump that the two have never even spoken, nor does he intend to pick up the phone. Trump had recently imposed heavy tariffs on Brazil a move largely seen as a political reaction to the legal case involving Jair Bolsonaro, which the U.S. President characterized as an act of “retaliation.”
Rather than treading carefully as some of America’s other allies did Lula struck back, and the strategy proved effective.
He delivered impassioned speeches in defense of Brazil’s sovereignty, criticized U.S. interference in the judicial process, and began wearing a blue cap emblazoned with the slogan: “Brazil belongs to Brazilians.”
His popularity surged.
He accused the Bolsonaro family who had lobbied for these tariffs of being unpatriotic; a jab that stung the political right, which often views patriotism as its own exclusive domain.
Even some segments of the agricultural lobby typically staunch supporters of Bolsonaro, yet dependent on trade with the U.S. found merit in Lula’s argument.
The United States eventually backed down and reduced the tariffs, though they have since risen again.
Subsequently, relations improved.
The two leaders spoke at the United Nations and later met in the Oval Office, where Trump described the talks as “very good,” and Lula remarked that he left feeling “very satisfied.”
Perhaps this is yet another indication that Trump has an affinity for strong personalities.
So, why might Trump be unhappy with this outcome? Latin America has shifted to the right; Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, and Peru have all elected presidents who share a close ideological alignment with the Trump administration. Trump has sought to leverage these allies to establish American dominance in the Western Hemisphere a strategy he dubbed the “Donro Doctrine.”
Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, notes that Trump viewed Brazil as the “ultimate and biggest prize” following Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in the first round of the election.
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and it was expected that Bolsonaro would join Trump’s “Shield of the Americas” alliance, aimed at combating drug trafficking.
Brazil also holds the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals surpassed only by China and the United States was keen to secure preferential access to them.
While there has been some easing in relations, the prospect of Lula serving another four-year term could reignite tensions over several issues.
Earlier this year, Brazil accused the United States of attempting to cast doubt on its electoral system and denied visas to two visiting U.S. State Department officials.
The U.S. dismissed the accusation as “baseless” and, in retaliation, revoked the visa of the Brazilian ambassador.
Should Trump continue to label the election result as “rigged,” further diplomatic deterioration is likely. Lula has also strongly opposed U.S. military intervention in the region ranging from the potential capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the bombing of ships allegedly involved in drug trafficking.
He sharply criticized Washington when it designated two major Brazilian gangs as “terrorist organizations” a move that followed lobbying by Flávio Bolsonaro and warned against such infringements on Brazil’s sovereignty.
This is a sensitive issue for the political left, which remembers the brutal 20th-century dictatorships in the region many of which were supported by the CIA in the name of containing communism.
Then there is the issue of U.S. tech companies.
Lula’s campaign accused Meta of showing favoritism toward Flávio Bolsonaro.
Meta denied this, though it acknowledged that issues with content moderation and technical glitches had led to the erroneous removal of certain posts or the restriction of their reach.
In response, Lula’s supporters shared his messages via WhatsApp groups collectively reaching 10 million people as a way to bypass the algorithms.
Separately, the Trump administration expressed dissatisfaction with “Pix” Brazil’s instant payment system. While the system has bolstered the economy, it has also drawn concern from U.S. entities like Visa and…He views it as tantamount to seizing Mastercard’s business.
This relationship has also laid bare the political divide.
During the campaign, Bolsonaro’s supporters waved American flags at their rallies—at one point even displaying a balloon that read, “Trump, drop an atomic bomb on Brazil” while Lula and his supporters accused Flávio Bolsonaro of prioritizing American interests over Brazil’s.
Nevertheless, the tensions may be overstated.
The United States is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner, after China, and the two leaders currently enjoy a good rapport.
Whether this relationship endures will depend on the extent to which the U.S. attempts to intervene in Brazilian affairs, and how aggressively Lula chooses to respond.
